OK, first let's get the horrible, odious, disgusting part over with. Last week I went with a stupid and ill-advised 18 games and came out 8-10. If that's not bad enough, I lost both my 10* plays so I really got racked in units. What a way to begin, huh? I'm sure I've enhanced everyone's confidence in me as a prognosticator. So, I've got some catching up to do:
Last week: 8-10 -27.4*
Season: 8-11 -32.9*
Thursday:
5* Southern Miss -2.5
A lot of people are looking at last week's games and going with UAB. They might be right, but consider this: if Southern Miss had gone to Baylor and UAB and gone to play California, I bet everyone would think the Golden Eagles were the golden team in this matchup. I badly underestimated California last week, which was dumb, because they earned my respect last year and I should have a better memory than that. Still, USM just wasn't ready for what hit them out there. UAB, meanwhile, slugged back and forth with a pitiful Baylor team, which I think USM would have wiped off the field. Anyway, I'n sticking with what I believe to be the best team in this C-USA matchup. If USM wins by a field goal it'll be just dandy with me.
Saturday:
10* Georgia -28.5
If the Bulldogs could beat Clemson 30-0 on the road, what are they going to do at home to MTSU who lost last week to 1-AA Florida Atlantic? No further write-up necessary.
10* Auburn -8
I badly misjudged the comparative talents between Auburn and USC last week. I think I am more clear regarding the comparative talents between the Tigers and Georgia Tech, who lost to BYU. The Tigers are an angry bunch right now, and the Yellow Jackets are not going to enjoy their home opener. Once again I'm taking the Tigers big, and I feel fairly certain I've got the right team this time.
7* Connecticut -14
The line has gone up since I took this game, but I look for these point-spread darlings to continue their winning ways against a poor Army team this weekend. This is Army's first game of the season, and they are breaking in an entirely new OL. I see UConn winning this one by around 21 before they call off the dogs.
7* Oklahoma St -20
What am I missing here? This is Wyoming coming in, isn't it? Did I get the halftime line? The Cowboys have a great offense, regardless of what happened in last week's game at Lincoln. Wyoming, meanwhile, last season ranked 107th in scoring defense, 114th in total defense, 114th in pass defense, and 104th in rush defense. These Cowboys might be basking in the glow of their 21-10 defeat of 1-AA Montana St last week. Go with the Cowboys from Okie in this laugher.
7* Miami -13.5
Okay, I took this one at -14 and bought the half-point. I'm still kicking myself by not taking this at -11 when it was available before the season started. Even so, if Florida comes within 20 of these guys I'll be surprised. The Gators' kiddie-core at QB aren't going to fare well against this bunch in Miami. Perhaps Zook is building a future powerhouse at Gainesville, but you won't be able to tell by this game. 'Canes are gonna romp.
5* Florida St -13.5
Here's another one I took at 14 and bought the half-point. I said last week that FSU would be their old selves this year, and that's one thing I said last week that I still feel I'm right about. The 'Noles own Maryland, have beat them the last 4 years by 37-10, 52-31, 59-7, and 49-10. I you like trends, the home team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 games in this series. Florida St has by far the best talent and they feel they have many points to prove this season. The score of this game shouldn't be all that different from the last four they played.
5* Alabama +9
Something is just weird about this game. Okay, first of all, you won't find Alabama +9 anymore. They opened at +10 and I grabbed them at 9. Now they are around +7.5, and I would still take them. Although I grab many of my games early to take advantage of line movements, I only post the games here if I feel confident that they will cover the current line. In fact, I wouldn't take a team anyway if I thought a couple of points would make a difference one way or the other. I don't think Oklahoma will beat Bama by more than a TD, if that much. Otherwise, please explain why the line keeps getting lower instead of higher? The Tide has their problems, but they have the same talent they always did, if a little less depth than usual. They have the same defensive coaches as last season, and most of the big stars are back in the stable. They were obviously looking ahead to this game last week during the first half of their game against South Florida, before they came back to romp them with pure power. Meanwhile, did you know that the Sooners return only 4 offensive starters from last season, and are breaking in an entirely new backfield. Jason White is back at QB, but is that really a plus? There is some reason that sharpies aren't jumping all over the Sooners in this game, and I think that's because there's going to be an old-fashioned barn-burner in Tuscaloosa Saturday. I'm taking the points in this one.
My other games will be posted in this same thread later. Good luck to all!
Last week: 8-10 -27.4*
Season: 8-11 -32.9*
Thursday:
5* Southern Miss -2.5
A lot of people are looking at last week's games and going with UAB. They might be right, but consider this: if Southern Miss had gone to Baylor and UAB and gone to play California, I bet everyone would think the Golden Eagles were the golden team in this matchup. I badly underestimated California last week, which was dumb, because they earned my respect last year and I should have a better memory than that. Still, USM just wasn't ready for what hit them out there. UAB, meanwhile, slugged back and forth with a pitiful Baylor team, which I think USM would have wiped off the field. Anyway, I'n sticking with what I believe to be the best team in this C-USA matchup. If USM wins by a field goal it'll be just dandy with me.
Saturday:
10* Georgia -28.5
If the Bulldogs could beat Clemson 30-0 on the road, what are they going to do at home to MTSU who lost last week to 1-AA Florida Atlantic? No further write-up necessary.
10* Auburn -8
I badly misjudged the comparative talents between Auburn and USC last week. I think I am more clear regarding the comparative talents between the Tigers and Georgia Tech, who lost to BYU. The Tigers are an angry bunch right now, and the Yellow Jackets are not going to enjoy their home opener. Once again I'm taking the Tigers big, and I feel fairly certain I've got the right team this time.
7* Connecticut -14
The line has gone up since I took this game, but I look for these point-spread darlings to continue their winning ways against a poor Army team this weekend. This is Army's first game of the season, and they are breaking in an entirely new OL. I see UConn winning this one by around 21 before they call off the dogs.
7* Oklahoma St -20
What am I missing here? This is Wyoming coming in, isn't it? Did I get the halftime line? The Cowboys have a great offense, regardless of what happened in last week's game at Lincoln. Wyoming, meanwhile, last season ranked 107th in scoring defense, 114th in total defense, 114th in pass defense, and 104th in rush defense. These Cowboys might be basking in the glow of their 21-10 defeat of 1-AA Montana St last week. Go with the Cowboys from Okie in this laugher.
7* Miami -13.5
Okay, I took this one at -14 and bought the half-point. I'm still kicking myself by not taking this at -11 when it was available before the season started. Even so, if Florida comes within 20 of these guys I'll be surprised. The Gators' kiddie-core at QB aren't going to fare well against this bunch in Miami. Perhaps Zook is building a future powerhouse at Gainesville, but you won't be able to tell by this game. 'Canes are gonna romp.
5* Florida St -13.5
Here's another one I took at 14 and bought the half-point. I said last week that FSU would be their old selves this year, and that's one thing I said last week that I still feel I'm right about. The 'Noles own Maryland, have beat them the last 4 years by 37-10, 52-31, 59-7, and 49-10. I you like trends, the home team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 games in this series. Florida St has by far the best talent and they feel they have many points to prove this season. The score of this game shouldn't be all that different from the last four they played.
5* Alabama +9
Something is just weird about this game. Okay, first of all, you won't find Alabama +9 anymore. They opened at +10 and I grabbed them at 9. Now they are around +7.5, and I would still take them. Although I grab many of my games early to take advantage of line movements, I only post the games here if I feel confident that they will cover the current line. In fact, I wouldn't take a team anyway if I thought a couple of points would make a difference one way or the other. I don't think Oklahoma will beat Bama by more than a TD, if that much. Otherwise, please explain why the line keeps getting lower instead of higher? The Tide has their problems, but they have the same talent they always did, if a little less depth than usual. They have the same defensive coaches as last season, and most of the big stars are back in the stable. They were obviously looking ahead to this game last week during the first half of their game against South Florida, before they came back to romp them with pure power. Meanwhile, did you know that the Sooners return only 4 offensive starters from last season, and are breaking in an entirely new backfield. Jason White is back at QB, but is that really a plus? There is some reason that sharpies aren't jumping all over the Sooners in this game, and I think that's because there's going to be an old-fashioned barn-burner in Tuscaloosa Saturday. I'm taking the points in this one.
My other games will be posted in this same thread later. Good luck to all!
